About referrals

Nope.

This has never been the case, and it's very much not the case now given the market.

From running Taro, these are ballpark numbers I've see on conversion numbers:

• Standard weak referral (5%) - A weak referral is when you're referred in by someone you barely know or don't know at all. All they do is upload your resume into the system. While 5% sounds low, it will be far better than cold applying, especially for a college student like yourself. You can get these with Taro Networking: https://www.jointaro.com/networking/?selectedServices=Referrals
• Strong referral (20%) - A strong referral is when the person referring you has worked with you for several years and can strongly vouch for you. They follow-up with the hiring manager to make sure that your resume got into the loop and push them to give you a chance. These are the best referrals, but they take significant time through networking and building trust (which you should start doing now). More info here: "How to get referrals?"

On a final note, referrals will have far more weight in startups compared to Big Tech as startups are more tightly knit.

Nope. Remember, not all referrals are created equal.

If the person referring you is a Director+ at the company saying "this is the best person I've ever worked with", then an interview is guaranteed. Short of that, I would not assume it's guaranteed.